1
00:00:00,900 –> 00:00:03,140
– Seattle real estate in 2019.

2
00:00:03,140 –> 00:00:05,380
We can say it wasn’t all that exciting

3
00:00:05,380 –> 00:00:07,420
up until the very end.

4
00:00:07,420 –> 00:00:08,980
All right, y’all know that I come to you

5
00:00:08,980 –> 00:00:11,140
with weekly trends, with monthly recaps,

6
00:00:11,140 –> 00:00:13,270
all that stuff, but it is very important

7
00:00:13,270 –> 00:00:15,260
as we are entering into 2020

8
00:00:15,260 –> 00:00:18,750
to look back onto 2019 and
see kind of big picture

9
00:00:18,750 –> 00:00:22,110
what happened in Seattle
real estate for the year.

10
00:00:22,110 –> 00:00:24,510
And in case I forgot to
mention it, hello Seattle!

11
00:00:24,510 –> 00:00:26,390
This is Christy Kinnaird,
Seattle Living Spaces

12
00:00:26,390 –> 00:00:29,290
and I say that every time
because by law, I have to.

13
00:00:29,290 –> 00:00:30,780
Anyway, you’re not here for that.

14
00:00:30,780 –> 00:00:31,650
You’re here for the data.

15
00:00:31,650 –> 00:00:33,830
So let’s taco ’bout it, shall we?

16
00:00:33,830 –> 00:00:35,680
Single family houses
in the city of Seattle

17
00:00:35,680 –> 00:00:38,320
over the last year.

18
00:00:38,320 –> 00:00:39,550
This is actually three years.

19
00:00:39,550 –> 00:00:41,760
Now, if you have a hard time seeing these.

20
00:00:41,760 –> 00:00:45,440
You can go to the blog,
seattlelivingspaces.com.

21
00:00:45,440 –> 00:00:48,600
All of this plus more
hilarious commentary is there.

22
00:00:48,600 –> 00:00:50,800
You can download it,
you can zoom in on it,

23
00:00:50,800 –> 00:00:52,050
you can do all of the things.

24
00:00:52,050 –> 00:00:54,030
Okay, but we’re just doing this for now.

25
00:00:54,030 –> 00:00:57,360
So basically the green is 2017.

26
00:00:57,360 –> 00:00:59,610
The red, which is actually the top right?

27
00:00:59,610 –> 00:01:02,070
Our highest prices were in 2018,

28
00:01:02,070 –> 00:01:05,410
and then yellow mellow
is the yellow, right?

29
00:01:05,410 –> 00:01:07,320
Mellow yellow is 2019.

30
00:01:07,320 –> 00:01:10,770
So, 2019 was predictable.

31
00:01:10,770 –> 00:01:12,680
Prices are always lowest at the beginning

32
00:01:12,680 –> 00:01:13,830
slash end of the year.

33
00:01:13,830 –> 00:01:16,900
And they go up, and then
they peak in early summer

34
00:01:16,900 –> 00:01:18,880
and then they kind of creep back down.

35
00:01:18,880 –> 00:01:22,030
We have a fun little peak here in October,

36
00:01:22,030 –> 00:01:23,740
but then we ended the year,

37
00:01:23,740 –> 00:01:26,870
right about where we’ve actually
ended the last three years.

38
00:01:26,870 –> 00:01:29,380
So houses in Seattle, again houses include

39
00:01:29,380 –> 00:01:32,610
single family houses and town houses.

40
00:01:32,610 –> 00:01:35,530
You know, we were below peak 2018 prices

41
00:01:35,530 –> 00:01:37,970
for most of the year,
but we’re above 2017.

42
00:01:37,970 –> 00:01:40,340
And we just ended the
year like we always do,

43
00:01:40,340 –> 00:01:42,010
right about at the same place.

44
00:01:42,010 –> 00:01:44,920
Now (laughs) , let’s talk about condos

45
00:01:44,920 –> 00:01:47,330
’cause that’s a little bit different.

46
00:01:47,330 –> 00:01:50,157
What in the drunk money
is this crap (laughs).

47
00:01:50,157 –> 00:01:52,130
Okay, I’m gonna have to snuggle up

48
00:01:52,130 –> 00:01:53,700
with this camera right now to show you.

49
00:01:53,700 –> 00:01:58,622
So (laughs), again green 2017,

50
00:01:58,622 –> 00:02:00,589
red 2018,

51
00:02:00,589 –> 00:02:02,493
yellow 2019.

52
00:02:03,370 –> 00:02:06,833
Houses follow a very predictable seasonal

53
00:02:06,833 –> 00:02:09,770
made in sales price trend.

54
00:02:09,770 –> 00:02:11,950
Condos, not so much.

55
00:02:11,950 –> 00:02:13,100
Condos are like toddlers.

56
00:02:13,100 –> 00:02:15,090
Condos are like your friend
that had too much to drink

57
00:02:15,090 –> 00:02:16,700
and you’re just trying to get her home.

58
00:02:16,700 –> 00:02:19,037
– Gonna go down to the river (laughs).

59
00:02:19,910 –> 00:02:21,558
– You know who you are, okay.

60
00:02:21,558 –> 00:02:23,210
Condos totally unpredictable.

61
00:02:23,210 –> 00:02:25,310
So we, this was the most exciting thing

62
00:02:25,310 –> 00:02:26,650
that happened in all
of Seattle real estate.

63
00:02:26,650 –> 00:02:28,450
And honestly as a person who own condos

64
00:02:28,450 –> 00:02:30,950
and hopes people sell
condos and buy condos

65
00:02:30,950 –> 00:02:32,300
this doesn’t feel exciting

66
00:02:32,300 –> 00:02:34,100
if you’re trying to transact real estate.

67
00:02:34,100 –> 00:02:37,550
Basically, condo prices vary.

68
00:02:37,550 –> 00:02:40,144
They vary by price point,
they vary by neighborhood,

69
00:02:40,144 –> 00:02:43,550
they vary by how realistic the seller is

70
00:02:43,550 –> 00:02:44,780
about the price that people are

71
00:02:44,780 –> 00:02:47,050
currently willing to
pay for their condo is.

72
00:02:47,050 –> 00:02:48,990
Kay, just because I paid more,

73
00:02:48,990 –> 00:02:51,180
I paid like 50 thousand
dollars more than my condo

74
00:02:51,180 –> 00:02:52,710
would sell for today, okay.

75
00:02:52,710 –> 00:02:54,940
I hate that, but if I went to sell it

76
00:02:54,940 –> 00:02:56,110
I would price It accordingly,

77
00:02:56,110 –> 00:02:57,580
because, just because I overpaid

78
00:02:57,580 –> 00:02:59,230
doesn’t mean that these more savvy buyers

79
00:02:59,230 –> 00:03:00,480
are going to overpay.

80
00:03:00,480 –> 00:03:01,900
Okay, and then we’re gonna talk about

81
00:03:01,900 –> 00:03:03,900
good old supply and demand.

82
00:03:03,900 –> 00:03:05,820
For sale slash sold.

83
00:03:05,820 –> 00:03:08,380
Hey, now, do you guys remember
when we used to do this

84
00:03:08,380 –> 00:03:09,870
back on the big white board?

85
00:03:09,870 –> 00:03:12,840
The gap, not the place that you
go to get those sweatshirts.

86
00:03:12,840 –> 00:03:14,520
I do love those when I was in high school,

87
00:03:14,520 –> 00:03:18,020
but I’m not putting on a Gap
sweatshirt right now, the gap.

88
00:03:18,020 –> 00:03:19,420
Well, the lighting over
there was terrible,

89
00:03:19,420 –> 00:03:20,980
so now were over here in the good lighting

90
00:03:20,980 –> 00:03:22,080
with the little charts and graphs

91
00:03:22,080 –> 00:03:23,390
and we’re getting up close and personal.

92
00:03:23,390 –> 00:03:26,190
Okay, number of for sale and sold.

93
00:03:26,190 –> 00:03:29,040
Supply and demand, it’s
really just quite that simple.

94
00:03:29,040 –> 00:03:30,920
Houses, you know,

95
00:03:30,920 –> 00:03:34,100
the top line is the
number of homes for sale.

96
00:03:34,100 –> 00:03:36,540
This bottom line is the
number of homes sold.

97
00:03:36,540 –> 00:03:39,890
And then looky-loo in December.

98
00:03:39,890 –> 00:03:41,420
I went over this in the monthly recap,

99
00:03:41,420 –> 00:03:44,130
but we had a very, this
is a really lovely market.

100
00:03:44,130 –> 00:03:46,510
This is a market where buyers
aren’t really in charge.

101
00:03:46,510 –> 00:03:48,080
Sellers are still a little bit in charge,

102
00:03:48,080 –> 00:03:49,380
but if you’re looking at houses

103
00:03:49,380 –> 00:03:51,400
you’ve got more than like three options.

104
00:03:51,400 –> 00:03:52,233
This is really nice.

105
00:03:52,233 –> 00:03:54,780
And then in December (growls),
it literally got to be

106
00:03:54,780 –> 00:03:57,280
where there were fewer options
than there were buyers,

107
00:03:57,280 –> 00:03:59,110
and ish got bananas in December.

108
00:03:59,110 –> 00:04:00,680
But for the entire rest of the year,

109
00:04:00,680 –> 00:04:02,340
nice mellow fellow.

110
00:04:02,340 –> 00:04:04,420
And if we move over here to condos,

111
00:04:04,420 –> 00:04:05,650
notice there’s a larger cap.

112
00:04:05,650 –> 00:04:07,480
I at least say mind the gap.

113
00:04:07,480 –> 00:04:09,160
When the gap is the largest

114
00:04:09,160 –> 00:04:11,350
that is when it’s most
favorable to be a buyer.

115
00:04:11,350 –> 00:04:13,120
And when the gap is the smallest

116
00:04:13,120 –> 00:04:15,290
that is when it’s most
favorable to be the seller.

117
00:04:15,290 –> 00:04:17,010
But boy, condos were just consistent.

118
00:04:17,010 –> 00:04:18,620
Like, just kinda of a consistent gap

119
00:04:18,620 –> 00:04:19,820
all throughout the year.

120
00:04:21,280 –> 00:04:23,890
And then, we turn to my final favorite,

121
00:04:23,890 –> 00:04:26,540
Year End Review Metric which is,

122
00:04:26,540 –> 00:04:28,380
how long were houses on the market?

123
00:04:28,380 –> 00:04:30,600
The pace of the market

124
00:04:31,910 –> 00:04:34,770
is an indicator of how
much demand there is,

125
00:04:34,770 –> 00:04:37,210
and how much prices are going to go up.

126
00:04:37,210 –> 00:04:39,610
So, if we have a lot
more supply then demand

127
00:04:39,610 –> 00:04:41,010
then we have prices are probably gonna

128
00:04:41,010 –> 00:04:42,430
stay steady or decrease.

129
00:04:42,430 –> 00:04:44,060
If houses are selling slower,

130
00:04:44,060 –> 00:04:47,350
that also means the prices are
probably going to stay soft

131
00:04:47,350 –> 00:04:48,600
or maybe even decrease.

132
00:04:48,600 –> 00:04:50,330
And here, whoa red.

133
00:04:50,330 –> 00:04:52,270
January, red for the houses are on the top

134
00:04:52,270 –> 00:04:53,520
the condos are on the bottom.

135
00:04:53,520 –> 00:04:56,560
Red, January is definitely the month where

136
00:04:56,560 –> 00:04:58,590
houses take the longest on average.

137
00:04:58,590 –> 00:05:01,770
For houses 40 days, condos 60 days.

138
00:05:01,770 –> 00:05:03,460
So homes that sold in January,

139
00:05:03,460 –> 00:05:06,410
took either 40 or 60 days
to get an accepted offer.

140
00:05:06,410 –> 00:05:07,243
That’s a long time.

141
00:05:07,243 –> 00:05:10,990
Compare that to June, hottest time.

142
00:05:10,990 –> 00:05:13,960
This used to be, a couple years ago July,

143
00:05:13,960 –> 00:05:16,000
but now June is definitely the month

144
00:05:16,000 –> 00:05:18,400
where it is the hottest,
there is the most competition,

145
00:05:18,400 –> 00:05:19,410
they sell the fastest

146
00:05:19,410 –> 00:05:21,570
and the prices are the highest.

147
00:05:21,570 –> 00:05:24,030
So there we go, 2019 end review.

148
00:05:24,030 –> 00:05:26,530
It’s like a “A Tale of Two Cities”, right?

149
00:05:26,530 –> 00:05:28,130
We have houses which are

150
00:05:28,130 –> 00:05:30,970
following the same trend
that they always follow.

151
00:05:30,970 –> 00:05:33,630
Then we have the condos
that are drunk monkeys.

152
00:05:33,630 –> 00:05:36,040
And I believe that we have
actually more exciting stuff

153
00:05:36,040 –> 00:05:37,370
coming up in 2020.

154
00:05:37,370 –> 00:05:40,530
I will be releasing my
real estate predictions

155
00:05:40,530 –> 00:05:45,070
video and blog for 2020 no
later then February 7th.

156
00:05:45,070 –> 00:05:46,060
So there it is kids.

157
00:05:46,060 –> 00:05:47,520
I appreciate you getting nerdy with me.

158
00:05:47,520 –> 00:05:50,440
Have a wonderful 2020,
and I’ll talk to you soon.

159
00:05:50,440 –> 00:05:53,023
(upbeat music)