Annual Predictions are My LEAST Favorite Thing Ever.
And since I have never been great at doing things I don’t like, I am giving a real half-hearted effort to this blog.
The video, on the other hand, I put a LOT of effort into. You are likely better off watching it than reading this boring blog.
Well, you are still reading… So let’s get into my predictions:
1) Don’t Listen To Me. I am ALWAYS wrong
Last year I predicted that the median sales price for a home would be $775,000. They were $715,000. I predicted condos to be $550,000. They were $485,000. Read the blog from last year to really feel just how wrong I always am.
2) 2019 Variables
We have some big stuff that will really swing the real estate market in 209:
a) Interest Rates – With everyone so used to interest rates in the 3’s and 4’s, if and when the interest rates move up into the 5’s, that may cause a lot of buyers to freeze up, back out, or be pushed out of their affordable range.
b) International Relations – Real estate does not exist in a bubble. With the trade wars, and Brexit and all the other monkey business that the US and the rest of the world is up to, it’s hard to know how our less than stable relations with the world will impact the housing market.
c) Presidential behavior. Large financial markets to do not like unpredictable behavior. Love him or hate him, Trump is predictable unpredictable and that keeps the housing market on edge.
3) The ACTUAL Predictions:
I think we have a decline in prices at the end of the year. Single family houses ended 2018 at $715,000. I predict we will crest up in prices in the Spring, then settle back down and end at $695,000.
Condos ended 2018 at $485,000, and I think they will end 2019 at $470,000.
So there it is. Slightly lower prices are my prediction. Can’t wait to look back in 2020 to see how wrong I was this time 🙂