1 00:00:00,522 –> 00:00:01,570 – Hey, hello Seattle. 2 00:00:01,570 –> 00:00:03,130 This is Christy Kinnaird with Seattle Living Spaces, 3 00:00:03,130 –> 00:00:04,990 coming to you with the weekly inventory update. 4 00:00:04,990 –> 00:00:07,780 Talking about the week ending 18th of October 5 00:00:07,780 –> 00:00:08,930 and let’s get into it. 6 00:00:08,930 –> 00:00:10,900 I do not feel like taco bout it, 7 00:00:10,900 –> 00:00:15,370 I feel like talking about it because I’m a little serious. 8 00:00:15,370 –> 00:00:17,370 I just came home from a real estate conference. 9 00:00:17,370 –> 00:00:18,300 Ready to give you the data. 10 00:00:18,300 –> 00:00:19,490 Okay, so looking at new houses, 11 00:00:19,490 –> 00:00:21,090 in the city of Seattle over the last seven day, 12 00:00:21,090 –> 00:00:25,330 205 homes hit the market versus 194 last week 13 00:00:25,330 –> 00:00:27,190 and 216 last year. 14 00:00:27,190 –> 00:00:29,423 We had 98 homes go pending. 15 00:00:30,380 –> 00:00:32,720 That’s fewer than the 107 that we had last week 16 00:00:32,720 –> 00:00:36,818 but definitely more than the 76 that we had last year. 17 00:00:36,818 –> 00:00:38,950 And we’re gonna talk a little bit more about last year, 18 00:00:38,950 –> 00:00:40,630 so keep this number in mind, okay. 19 00:00:40,630 –> 00:00:44,170 We had a 51% absorption rate versus 40% last week 20 00:00:44,170 –> 00:00:45,930 and 30% last year. 21 00:00:45,930 –> 00:00:47,160 And at this exact moment in time, 22 00:00:47,160 –> 00:00:51,280 in the city of Seattle, we have 1,369 homes for sale. 23 00:00:51,280 –> 00:00:55,294 Last month it was 1,403 and last year, 1,486. 24 00:00:55,294 –> 00:00:57,544 And here’s what I wanna talk about last year. 25 00:00:58,690 –> 00:01:00,270 Real estate market was in a little bit of a free fall 26 00:01:00,270 –> 00:01:01,230 this time last year. 27 00:01:01,230 –> 00:01:06,230 Our prices peaked in May of 2018 at $803,000 for a house 28 00:01:07,050 –> 00:01:09,780 and they shot down 16%, 29 00:01:09,780 –> 00:01:12,043 bottoming out in January of this year. 30 00:01:12,950 –> 00:01:14,390 And we were starting to figure out 31 00:01:14,390 –> 00:01:16,010 what was going on right about now 32 00:01:16,010 –> 00:01:17,110 and it was a little bit interesting. 33 00:01:17,110 –> 00:01:18,780 It was driven by, 34 00:01:18,780 –> 00:01:20,970 remember we had extreme lack of inventory, 35 00:01:20,970 –> 00:01:22,298 which was making the buyers frenzied, 36 00:01:22,298 –> 00:01:23,670 10 offers on every house 37 00:01:23,670 –> 00:01:26,220 and that’s bringing the price up 10% above list 38 00:01:26,220 –> 00:01:27,210 and it was just nuts. 39 00:01:27,210 –> 00:01:28,930 So, when we started to have more inventory, 40 00:01:28,930 –> 00:01:30,340 when the sellers started to get whiff 41 00:01:30,340 –> 00:01:31,660 that the market was changing, 42 00:01:31,660 –> 00:01:33,600 everybody that was trying to time the market, 43 00:01:33,600 –> 00:01:35,550 flooded the market with their properties for sale, 44 00:01:35,550 –> 00:01:36,980 exaggerated the situation, 45 00:01:36,980 –> 00:01:38,920 freaking buyers out, the whole thing. 46 00:01:38,920 –> 00:01:40,660 People just kind of stopped buying homes 47 00:01:40,660 –> 00:01:42,470 unless it was really, really necessary for them 48 00:01:42,470 –> 00:01:43,920 at that exact moment in time. 49 00:01:45,220 –> 00:01:46,463 But what’s different this year than last year, 50 00:01:46,463 –> 00:01:48,960 is that we’re more stable, okay. 51 00:01:48,960 –> 00:01:51,540 We have more inventory than we’re accustomed to 52 00:01:51,540 –> 00:01:53,440 but still below a healthy normal. 53 00:01:53,440 –> 00:01:56,250 We still have buyers buying houses. 54 00:01:56,250 –> 00:01:59,000 We still are seeing good pending numbers, okay, 55 00:01:59,000 –> 00:02:01,760 but what we’re seeing is an aging inventory 56 00:02:01,760 –> 00:02:02,860 compared to last year. 57 00:02:03,820 –> 00:02:07,300 Of these 1,369 homes that are actively for sale, 58 00:02:07,300 –> 00:02:09,480 21% of them are brand new, 59 00:02:09,480 –> 00:02:11,580 zero to 14 days, the runway models. 60 00:02:11,580 –> 00:02:14,570 21% of them have been on the market 15 to 30 days, 61 00:02:14,570 –> 00:02:16,256 still a healthy place to be. 62 00:02:16,256 –> 00:02:18,730 If you’re nearing that 30 days mark, 63 00:02:18,730 –> 00:02:20,160 be thinking about a price reduction, 64 00:02:20,160 –> 00:02:23,700 but you know, you could still say that you are buyable. 65 00:02:23,700 –> 00:02:25,176 And then we’ve got 22% of the homes 66 00:02:25,176 –> 00:02:29,070 in the 31 to 60 day category and that category is sellers. 67 00:02:29,070 –> 00:02:32,230 You didn’t present your property properly, 68 00:02:32,230 –> 00:02:35,570 either it doesn’t look nice, 69 00:02:35,570 –> 00:02:36,600 you didn’t use the right staging, 70 00:02:36,600 –> 00:02:38,970 you didn’t have good photos, there were no open houses 71 00:02:38,970 –> 00:02:42,090 or, cold hard facts, you did not price it, 72 00:02:42,090 –> 00:02:44,530 or your agent did not price it correctly. 73 00:02:44,530 –> 00:02:47,370 Okay, and then 36% of the market is the crusty rusty. 74 00:02:47,370 –> 00:02:49,090 And here’s where we’re really different. 75 00:02:49,090 –> 00:02:52,762 Last year, 26% of the market was a crusty rusty 76 00:02:52,762 –> 00:02:56,730 and we had a much higher percentage of these newer listings, 77 00:02:56,730 –> 00:02:59,680 so, we had more new choices for buyers back then 78 00:02:59,680 –> 00:03:01,540 and then they still weren’t buying. 79 00:03:01,540 –> 00:03:05,610 So, this kind of balance of our distribution, 80 00:03:05,610 –> 00:03:08,130 is fairly healthy and kind of exciting. 81 00:03:08,130 –> 00:03:09,420 Anyway, I’ll get off my soapbox 82 00:03:09,420 –> 00:03:10,930 and we’ll start talking about condos. 83 00:03:10,930 –> 00:03:12,910 We had 71 condos go pending this week, 84 00:03:12,910 –> 00:03:14,980 it was 70 last week last year, 85 00:03:14,980 –> 00:03:16,190 oh no, these are new listings. 86 00:03:16,190 –> 00:03:21,000 71 new listings this week, 70 last week, 100 last year. 87 00:03:21,000 –> 00:03:22,610 23 went pending this week, 88 00:03:22,610 –> 00:03:26,240 20 went pending last week, 26 went pending last year. 89 00:03:26,240 –> 00:03:29,140 Absorption rates, which is not my favorite metric, 90 00:03:29,140 –> 00:03:30,820 it bounce up and down like a toddler. 91 00:03:30,820 –> 00:03:31,960 They are not predictable 92 00:03:31,960 –> 00:03:33,650 and I don’t think they’re really indicative 93 00:03:33,650 –> 00:03:34,483 of the healthy of the market, 94 00:03:34,483 –> 00:03:36,340 but whatever, I tried to stop doing them 95 00:03:36,340 –> 00:03:39,550 and there was an outroar, you know who you are, 96 00:03:39,550 –> 00:03:41,200 here’s your absorption rate. 97 00:03:41,200 –> 00:03:45,150 33% this week, 21% last week, 22% last year. 98 00:03:45,150 –> 00:03:47,027 And at this exact moment in time in the city of Seattle, 99 00:03:47,027 –> 00:03:49,630 we have 672 condos for you 100 00:03:49,630 –> 00:03:51,760 to choose from when you’re buying. 101 00:03:51,760 –> 00:03:55,880 Last week we had 685, last year, see the red? 102 00:03:55,880 –> 00:03:59,560 Yeah, 715, yowzers. 103 00:03:59,560 –> 00:04:02,147 All right, and of these 672 condos, what’s the distribution? 104 00:04:02,147 –> 00:04:04,070 How long have they been on the market? 105 00:04:04,070 –> 00:04:06,250 Well, our runway models are at 15%, 106 00:04:06,250 –> 00:04:08,930 the 15 to 30 day category is 17%, 107 00:04:08,930 –> 00:04:11,300 the 31 to 60 category is 23% 108 00:04:11,300 –> 00:04:15,310 and then 44, 44% of all the condos 109 00:04:15,310 –> 00:04:18,670 have been on the market 61 days or longer, 110 00:04:18,670 –> 00:04:20,090 which is too long. 111 00:04:20,090 –> 00:04:23,250 Okay, last year, crusty rusty’s were only 24% of the market, 112 00:04:23,250 –> 00:04:24,763 so very different market. 113 00:04:25,783 –> 00:04:28,320 I personally think it’s a lot healthier 114 00:04:28,320 –> 00:04:30,380 and safer for both buyers and sellers 115 00:04:30,380 –> 00:04:32,770 in this year’s market versus last year’s market. 116 00:04:32,770 –> 00:04:33,770 So, there it it. 117 00:04:33,770 –> 00:04:35,220 You’re nerdy weekly inventory update. 118 00:04:35,220 –> 00:04:36,070 I appreciate you tuning in 119 00:04:36,070 –> 00:04:38,073 ad I will see you next week.